Are the best deals really on Black Friday?

Marie Morales, an Aliso Viejo mom of five, will be shopping with the masses on Thanksgiving Day. But don't expect the deal seeker to camp outside stores or fret over wish-list items. During the past year, she methodically has stockpiled about 100 toys bought from clearance shelves, which means most of her holiday shopping is done - at a fraction of the price. 'I'm trying to move away from it,' said Morales, referring to Thanksgiving and Black Friday sales. 'I can get deals earlier in the year. And Black Friday is ... getting crazier and crazier.' The die-hard couponer, who donates a portion of those toys to charity, isn't the only one turned off by the holiday-shopping 'creep.' Using social media and online petitions, the public has urged stores including Wal-Mart and Kmart to reconsider opening on Thanksgiving Day to give workers the day off. Some are scaling back spending or opting to leisurely shop online instead of fighting the store crowds. Despite signs of Black Friday fatigue, many retailers are going full throttle this year with ramped-up seasonal hiring and pre-holiday ad splashes. More stores are throwing open their doors on the holiday, with hours starting as early as 6 a.m. Locally, both Westfield MainPlace in Santa Ana and Outlets at Orange will be open at 6 p.m. on Thanksgiving, two hours earlier than last year. BIG MONEY AT STAKE Why stores are opening early boils down to surviving intense competition for customer dollars. If this year is anything like last year, merely opening earlier won't guarantee big profits for retailers. But it remains worthwhile because the goal is to get into the consumer mindset early and protect market share, according to Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst at national retail tracker The NPD Group. 'It's shaping up to be a healthy but heavily promotional holiday, which means that retail revenue growth will be harder to come by,' Cohen said. That may be bad news for retailers, but it bodes well for customers, who last year won out with bigger discounts. Like in previous years, there's a lot of revenue at stake for the industry. Consumers nationwide shelled out almost $266 billion in November and December last year, a 2.7 bump from the prior year, ShopperTrak data show. In Orange County, taxable retail and food sales totaled more than $10.3 billion during the final quarter of 2012, which includes the busiest shopping months of November and December, based on the most recent available number from the state Board of Equalization. Sales plummeted by 16 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, during the latest financial crisis. They since have rebounded to 2007 levels, but growth from 2011 to 2012 slowed. Retailers this year are banking on brightened consumer sentiment. It hit a seven-year high this month, with the help of a falling unemployment rate and lower gas prices, according to an index produced by Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan. 'Even though consumer spending on gasoline is slightly less than 3 percent of disposable income, it plays a more significant role on consumer mood,' according to analysis from economics tracker IHS Global Insight. Morales, the 33-year-old mom from Aliso Viejo, may be more devoted to finding deals than the typical shopper. But she does exhibit some key traits retailers are expecting in this year's holiday customer. For one, more shoppers are doing their research and having a plan before hitting the stores, according to a holiday outlook by PricewaterhouseCoopers and Strategy&. After seeing holiday promos on popular website Deal Mama, Morales has her sights set on only two items: a $250 Go Pro that comes with a $50 gift card and a Nikon digital camera priced down to $99 from $299. She plans to visit a few local Targets to snag them. But if she strikes out, she's not worried. Deals don't end at Black Friday. This year's holiday shopper appears to be more patient in finding the best values. More than half of those surveyed who make $50,000 or less plan to visit up to three stores or websites; 23 percent will visit up to four places, the PwC and Strategy& survey says. Brick-and-mortar retailers continue to go head to head with online only businesses such as Amazon. U.S. e-commerce sales during the fourth quarter, which capture prime-time holiday shopping, has risen by double-digit percentages for the past five years to $69 billion, according to the Commerce Department. Those numbers have soared, thanks to customers like Mitzie Larson, Garden Grove resident and former retail worker. She is so tired of the Black Friday creep, she'll be volunteering at an Operation Christmas filling shoeboxes with small gifts instead of shopping. For gifts, she has commissioned someone to knit her scarves. Everything else? 'Amazon is my go-to for just about everything: clothing, electronics, makeup and books and just little odds and ends,' said Larson, a 58-year-old library clerk. 'I worked a couple years in retail during the holidays, so maybe that's why I may be jaded. I never worked so hard and earned so little.' Even die-hard Black Friday shoppers like Monique White are starting to see their share of online holiday purchases grow. The 49-year-old Costa Mesa resident has taken part in the holiday bargain hunt since she was a teen and Bullock's department store was still around. But every year, the ease of browsing and buying online gets increasingly hard to pass up, especially when it comes to shopping for her relatives on the East Coast. 'They can do a wish list on Amazon, and you just check it off,' she said. 'It ships free to them and you get it wrapped.' HOW STORES ARE RESPONDING Brick-and-mortar stores have answered the challenge by offering their own perks. Tactics include: * Price matching. Wal-Mart will match product prices featured on Amazon, which is now store policy. The program faced early issues after scammers used fake Amazon listings to buy PlayStation 4 consoles. The retailer says the situation is now under control. Before the holiday season, the big-box giant also launched Savings Catcher. How it works: If a competing store offers a lower price on an item bought at a Wal-Mart, customers will get the difference back. * Seamless shopping. Struggling Sears has launched a free program that allows shoppers to browse and reserve clothing items and footwear they'd like to try on next time they visit a Sears location. Qualifying items will now have a button that says 'Reserve In Store.' Reserved items can be held up to two days. Retail analysts say it's key for companies to think 'omnichannel,' how shopping online, in-store and mobile can work together seamlessly. * Free shipping. Target is providing it on all online orders through Dec. 20, and Best Buy will do it for orders of $35 and more, with certain exclusions. Wal-Mart will offer free shipping on its top 100 items. It seems like shipping is where traditional retailers could really make a difference on customers like White, whose favorite online shopping perk is next-day shipping on Amazon. '(It) really, really works,' she said. 'I've gotten something on a Sunday that I ordered on Saturday night.' SECRETS TO STAYING SANE Marie Morales manages to buy most of her holiday shopping for her five kids at steep discounts - all before the pre-Black Friday craze. She even has plenty left over for birthday presents and donations for causes such as Toys for Tots. What's her secret? She raids Target's biannual toy clearances, which usually take place January and July. Although some toys are nearly a year old, they're still popular asks, such as a Marvel Avengers toy that was marked down to $24 from $80. For electronics, mainly gifts for her husband, she's begrudgingly hitting up the stores on Thursday. Her plan is to have Thanksgiving lunch at 2 p.m., perhaps enjoy dessert and coffee and leave her house at 5 p.m. to make it in time for Target's 6 p.m. opening. She's confident she won't have to queue up hours earlier to get the deal on her husband's future GoPro. And even if she misses out at one Target, 'I might just check out another Target.' 'There's Black Friday as well, and Cyber Monday,' Morales added.



Sears


Kenmore 3.9-cubic-foot washer and 7.0-cubic-foot dryer pair, $799.99.


Contact the writer: lleung@ocregister.com>


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