California Chrome hardly broke a sweat in his last four races, despite being in increasingly competitive fields. He appears to have push-button acceleration and is a man among boys on the West Coast. One could argue he has yet to show what he can do if really tested. So anyone putting money on him, even at relatively low odds for a Kentucky Derby favorite, should do so without a lot of buyer's remorse - at least not at the moment.
His only knocks are he has not raced east of the Mississippi, and thus is untested against the best of the East Coast crowd, and he has not raced over the Churchill Downs surface. He should be forwardly placed enough Saturday to avoid traffic jams, but he will certainly have to pass a few horses to win.
Most of those looking to bet around California Chrome will gravitate toward Wicked Strong, Samraat and Intense Holiday. Both Wicked Strong and Intense Holiday come off strong efforts. Wicked Strong, in particular, looked great in winning the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. Before that win, he had found some disadvantageous pace scenarios that caused him to come up short. But in the Wood, he put it all together and got the pace he needed to show what he can do. The Boston connections will depress his odds a bit.
Intense Holiday also has some excuses for his misses but should get the pace he needs Saturday to be running late. Samraat has been beaten only once, and even that effort was a forgivable second in the Wood. He has shown a lot of heart and will likely do so again in the Derby.
A bit of a sleeper is Dance With Fate. Despite winning the Blue Grass at Keeneland with a bold, sweeping move befitting a serious Derby contender, his morning-line odds were 20-1. His one previous trip east turned out to be telling, going off at 6-1 in the Blue Grass but running like he should have been much lower. He will likely be underbet come post time. The Blue Grass used to be a major Derby indicator but has not produced many Derby winners in the past decade. Maybe this is the year it becomes relevant again.
A win bet on California Chrome is logical, but for value, Dance With Fate is more tantalizing. For exactas and trifectas, Wicked Strong, Intense Holiday and Samraat should be included.
Posted by Unknown on Saturday, May 3, 2014 - Rating: 4.5
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