WORCESTER — The two leading candidates for governor, Democrat Martha M. Coakley and Republican Charles D. Baker Jr., will square off at The Hanover Theatre for the Performing Arts Monday in the city's first gubernatorial debate in 12 years.
'We're excited about the opportunity to have this conversation,' said Timothy P. Murray, president and chief executive officer of the Worcester Regional Chamber of Commerce. 'As the second-largest city in New England and Massachusetts, it gives the candidates an opportunity to answer questions that are important to Worcester and Worcester County.'
The one-hour debate, the second-to-last of the election, will air on New England Cable News beginning at 8 p.m. It is sponsored by a coalition that includes NECN, the Telegram & Gazette, the Worcester Chamber and the Hanover.
The debate, which is free and open to members of the public who reserved tickets, will be the first in the city since Republican Mitt Romney debated Democrat Shannon P. O'Brien in 2002 at Worcester Polytechnic Institute en route to becoming governor.
Political aides and party supporters will begin tweeting feverishly after the first bell, but experts say the general public is more likely to be watching Monday Night Football.
'At the current time, most people just don't have much interest in debates,' said Tobe Berkovitz, associate professor of advertising at Boston University and an experienced campaign consultant.
Mr. Berkovitz, who has worked on presidential and gubernatorial campaigns, said increasing disaffection toward politicians has decreased the interest in debates and elections in general.
'For the most part, it's one talking point after the other,' Mr. Berkovitz said, something that turns a lot of people off.
Though it might be natural to think more people will pay attention toward the end of an election, Mr. Berkovitz said he doesn't see an influx of voters suddenly deciding to watch one of the last debates.
'I think most of the people watching fall into the political junkie category, and they've pretty much made up their minds,' Mr. Berkovitz said.
Though social media platforms like Twitter allow people to debate each other during the debate, Mr. Berkovitz said most of those doing so are 'preaching to the converted,' not sucking in new voters.
While the live airing of the debates may not be a large draw to casual voters, the storylines that emerge can still have an impact.
'It's certainly one of the critical junctures in any statewide campaign,' Ms. O'Brien, who lost to Mr. Romney in 2002, said last week.
During the last debate of the 2002 election cycle, a joking remark Ms. O'Brien made about a tattoo during a discussion about abortion fell flat — an incident many say turned the tide in favor of Mr. Romney.
'That moment made me look like I was not as thoughtful about an important issue as I should be,' said Ms. O'Brien, who supported lowering the age a woman could get an abortion to 16. 'It's also sometimes afterward how it's spun.'
Ms. O'Brien had been up a few points before the election. While many say the comment lost her the race, Ms. O'Brien said any campaign is 'a series of many incidents, many interactions and a lot of money.'
The race before Massachusetts voters is no different, as, in an environment in which more than 50 percent of a less-than-enthused voting pool is unenrolled, much of the contact between the candidates and the public is purchased.
A Boston Globe poll Thursday showed Mr. Baker with a nine-point lead over Ms. Coakley, an advantage the Coakley campaign dismissed as a polling outlier. They instead cited WBUR's most recent weekly poll, which had Mr. Baker ahead 43 percent to 42 percent. WBUR reported that outside interests have spent a record $13 million so far on the race, with Republicans outspending Democrats by $4 million.
Mr. Baker's ticket and the state GOP also have a $2 million edge over Ms. Coakley and state Democrats. The trend holds firmly in conservative Worcester County, where an analysis of state records shows the 57-year-old Swampscott Republican outraised the 61-year-old Medford Democrat nearly 5-to-1 since last September. That includes a nearly $35,000 advantage in heavily Democratic Worcester.
Far behind in the money mix are the three low-polling independent candidates for governor, Jeffrey S. McCormick, Scott D. Lively and Evan Falchuk. That's in part why all three have sharply criticized the coalition sponsoring Monday's debate for not including them.
Mr. Falchuk, who has argued that media bias only enhances financial barriers built into the system by partisan politicians, is scheduled to ask a Suffolk Superior Court judge Monday to allow him into the debate.
Mr. Falchuk and Mr. McCormick were invited to the debate back in August but disinvited in October because of lagging poll numbers. Mr. Falchuk believes his acceptance of the initial offer constituted a contract.
Sponsors of the debate, including Telegram & Gazette Publisher James F. Normandin, have said they see their main responsibility as allowing for more time for voters to form impressions of the two candidates most likely to win the election.
The situation is far from rare, as in the 2002 Worcester debate, a man was escorted from WPI by state police after shouting his disapproval of the exclusion of three low-polling candidates in that race.
Regardless of the number of candidates on stage Monday, Mr. Berkovitz said the general public is likely to be unaware of the debate unless something significant occurs.
'If somebody makes a big mistake, or somebody does really well, people might pay more attention to the campaign,' Mr. Berkovitz said, or the media might run with a storyline.
From what she's seen, neither candidate has struck a huge blow or made a crucial mistake, Ms. O'Brien said.
'I think Martha's been steady. I think she's had her facts and hasn't had a negative edge,' she said, something research has shown can hurt women candidates more than men.
'For women candidates, it's always a balance between being someone who's tough enough to be an executive and handle the job, and someone who isn't personally perceived as overly aggressive,' Ms. O'Brien said.
Ms. O'Brien, who admits she may have been too aggressive during her debates with Mr. Romney, says she sees Mr. Baker as doing a good job reining in the anger he sometimes flashed during his losing campaign to Gov. Deval L. Patrick in 2010.
Both candidates come into the race with considerable baggage, as Ms. Coakley has fought against the perception of being a weak campaigner after her 2010 loss to Republican Scott Brown for the Senate seat vacated by the late Democrat Edward M. Kennedy.
Mr. Baker's loss to Mr. Patrick in 2010 was also deemed a failed opportunity, as the election came at a time in which the incumbent Democrat's popularity was at a low point.
With less than 10 days before one candidate breaks out of their narrative and the other is branded a political failure, each campaign will be on guard for the gaffe that could decide the race.. That makes Monday's televised debate interesting to the junkies and, perhaps, some civic-minded busy folks.
'In a tight campaign, that small group can matter,' Mr. Berkovitz said. 'What you want to do is just re-emphasize your key points, try to be a little bit interesting and definitely try not to screw up.'
Contact Brad Petrishen at brad.petrishen@telegram.com. Follow him on Twitter @BPetrishenTG.
Posted by Unknown on Saturday, October 25, 2014 - Rating: 4.5
0 comments "Baker, Coakley square off Monday at The Hanover"
Post a Comment