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If Republicans can roughly tie Democrats when it comes to women votes, the GOP will win, according to recent history.
In a new New York Times/CBS poll, Republicans have closed the so-called gender gap, statistically tying Democrats, 42 percent to 43 percent. Compare that to the last midterm election cycle in 2010, when exit polls also showed Republicans tying Democrats with women voters, 49 percent to 48 percent.
Recall that 2010 was a pretty good year for Republicans.
Now compare those numbers to 2006, a midterm election that turned over control of the House and the Senate to Democrats. Back then, Republicans lost the female vote by 13 points - 43 percent to 56 percent. So much for this year's meme on the Republican 'war on women.'
If Republicans can keep women evenly split between the two parties - or, obviously, win over women voters - they have a strong chance of winning elections nationwide. But that's easier for the GOP during midterm elections, when fewer people come out to vote. Republicans still have a hard time winning women voters during presidential races - to their peril.
In 2008, women voted Democratic, 56 percent to 43 percent, and then-Sen. Obama won. In 2012, women voted Democrat 55 percent to 44 percent, and President Obama was re-elected.
Although the gap narrowed ever so slightly in 2012 (despite the 'war on women' drum circles), it was still too wide to help Mitt Romney.
But Democrats have since hammered Republicans for their supposed anti-woman policies. Despite that, the GOP is breaking even with women this year. That doesn't mean Republicans are doing anything especially right, but it suggests that the Democrats' message hasn't been the final nail in the GOP's coffin.
Republicans still face an uphill battle come 2016, when the presumptive Democratic frontrunner is a woman, and it's pretty much assured that Democrats will phrase that race as 'if you're against Hillary Clinton, you're sexist,' much like the 'if you're against Barack Obama, you're racist' arguments that remain prevalent today.
That's especially true if Clinton can energize young, unmarried women to vote. If she promises free birth control for all and repeats the debunked claim that women earn less than men, Republicans might be in trouble. But for 2014 at least, Republicans are sitting pretty in this respect.
Posted by Unknown on Wednesday, September 17, 2014 - Rating: 4.5
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