The cease-fire in Eastern Ukraine is no done deal. The last truce lasted just 10 days and became 'unilateral' because pro-Russian rebels never abided by it. But assuming this one does hold, it will give Kiev, Moscow, pro-Russian separatist representatives and OSCE mediators some space to negotiate a peace.
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko's representatives came to the talks in Minsk with a proverbial knife to their throats. Poroshenko just witnessed the defeat of his armed forces and militias, outgunned and beaten back this past week as pro-Russian rebels - reinforced by Russian heavy weapons and commandos - took key towns and opened a new front. Today, separatists claim to have entered Mariupol, Ukraine's strategic sea port. And after more than five months of exhaustive fighting - in which at least 2,600 people have died, according to UN figures - a real cease-fire may be prize enough for the battered Ukrainian leadership to offer up a compromise.
The rebels, on the other hand, would he holding their fire at a time when they effectively control the major cities of Donetsk and Lugansk, as well as much of a land corridor to the Azov Sea. In order words, their 'New Russia,' as they now call it, is already a viable, breakaway entity. A fact on the ground.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, can well proclaim his seven-point peace plan is proof of his good intentions in Ukraine. He knows he's already attained his immediate military goal: 'to let Poroshenko know that the war is unwinnable for him,' as prominent Russian analyst Fyodor Lukyanov recently told NBC News.
And now the heavy lifting begins. While Putin's plan is comprehensive - dealing as it does with a prisoner exchanges, a humanitarian corridor in rebel-controlled areas for movement of aid and displaced people, as well as the rebuilding of infrastructure and the deployment of peace monitors - the plan doesn't deal with Ukraine's political future. Experts tell NBC News that, in return for offering Poroshenko a permanent peace, Putin has two conditions that have driven his Ukraine policy from the start: First, a pledge that Ukraine will never join NATO, which some have called Putin's living nightmare; and second, giving the separatists in 'New Russia' enough autonomy to effectively control their homeland, while remaining, technically, part of Ukraine.
And that's where the devil emerges from the details. Putin doesn't need to grandfather an independent 'New Russia' in Ukraine at a time when economic sanctions are beginning to hurt. The rebels themselves - no doubt under strong pressure from Moscow - have recently dropped independence as one of their key demands. But an autonomous, pro-Russian, Eastern Ukraine would give Putin a permanent 'vote' in Ukraine's future, and the kind of influence he's sought throughout the former Soviet space.
Giving up that much political power to the rebels has, so far, been a red line for Kiev. But, with Putin holding so many of the cards, he may get what he wants in Ukraine without his proxies having to fire another shot.
First published September 5 2014, 10:56 AM
In a career spanning 40 years, Jim Maceda has covered more than 100 countries and many conflicts, terrorist attacks and natural disasters, as well as cultural and human interest stories. He has interviewed dozens of world leaders. Over the years, Maceda has reported from the front lines of Rhodesia, Lebanon, Northern Ireland, and Chechnya, as well as on the disintegration of the former Yugoslavia, including NATO airstrikes in Serbia and Kosovo. He is the veteran of scores of embeds in Afghanistan and Iraq, doing stories on the U.S. Army, Marines and Special Forces as well as insurgents and civilians torn apart by war. Since 1999, Maceda has been based in London.Maceda was named NBC News' Germany correspondent in 1994, based in Frankfurt, from where he covered Eastern Europe, the Bosnian civil war and peacekeeping missions in the former Yugoslavia and Haiti. In addition, he covered major breaking news in Iran, Russia, China and the Middle East.In 1990 Maceda became the NBC News Moscow correspondent, covering an array of stories from the Soviet Union and Russia, including the attempted coup on then-President Mikhail G. Gorbachev and the fall of the Soviet Union. In February 1992 Maceda became the first foreign TV correspondent to gain access to a secret nuclear city in Siberia, named K-26, which housed the biggest plutonium weapons factory in the former Soviet Union. Maceda also covered the civil war and the failed U.S. peacekeeping mission in Somalia.Maceda was based in Manila from 1988 to 1990 as an NBC News Asia reporter and producer. He covered a wide range of datelines, including the Cambodian War, the Burma Revolt, the Drug War in Colombia and the Panama Invasion. In 1989 he won an Emmy for his reporting on the Tiananmen Square Massacre in Beijing.From 1984 to 1988, Maceda was a senior news producer in London. During that time, he was part of the first U.S. television team to cover the devastating famine in Ethiopia. In 1988 he won an Emmy for his coverage of the Palestinian Intifada, or Uprising, the same year he made his switch to on-air reporting. He also served as the acting bureau chief for NBC News in Manila in 1986, during the People Power Revolt and fall of Ferdinand Marcos.Maceda was the deputy bureau chief and producer for NBC News in Tel Aviv from 1981 to 1983 where he covered major events including Israel's annexation of the Golan Heights, its handing over of the Sinai to Egypt and the 1982 Lebanon War. While in Beirut, he produced the heralded 17-part 'Lebanon Diary' series.Maceda got his start in journalism as an associate producer for CBS News in Paris, from 1973 to 1976. As a freelance reporter and producer for French TV from 1976 to 1980, he was the first to secure a joint interview for a European TV network with Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin and Egyptian President Anwar Sadat after the Camp David Accords. In 1980 he joined NBC News' Paris Bureau as an associate producer and researcher.Maceda has won numerous awards and citations, including an Edward R. Murrow award for his coverage of the 7/7 London terror bombings, seven Emmy nominations, four Overseas Press Club awards, and three National Headliner awards. In 1991 he received the Olive Branch Award from Columbia University for his stories on Russian nuclear proliferation. Maceda has had the distinction of reporting exclusively for two, long-running news series on 'Nightly News with Brian Williams': 'Putin’s Russia' (2007-2008) and 'Far From Home' (in Afghanistan, 2010-12).Maceda graduated from Stanford University in 1970 with a Bachelor of Arts in English. He then pursued post-graduate studies at the Paris Sorbonne. He is married to Cindy Lilles, has a grown daughter from a previous marriage, and is the doting grandpa of three young girls.
Posted by Unknown on Saturday, September 6, 2014 - Rating: 4.5
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