WASHINGTON - After six months of Tea Party supporters doing battle with the GOP mainstream and troubling signs for Democrats, the 2014 primary season is coming to an end.
Voters in Delaware, Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Rhode Island went to the polls Tuesday to pick their nominees for Congress and statewide offices, while New Yorkers will set in place a Nov. 4 matchup between Democratic incumbent Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Republican Rob Astorino.
The question left for voters: Will the last 55 days before Election Day set conditions for a Republican tsunami or can Democrats hold on to their majority in the Senate and win back governorships in major states like Pennsylvania and Florida?
'The map is so good for Republicans,' says Jennifer Duffy, who analyzes Senate and governor races for the non-partisan Cook Political Report.
She predicted if some of the political 'fundamentals' get worse - including polling on whether Americans believe the country is on the right track, President Obama's job-approval ratings, and which party would do a better job in Congress - then Republicans could do better than expected on Nov. 4.
Republicans need a net gain of six seats to topple Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Democrats from power, and the battle is concentrated in about 10 states.
Stu Rothenberg, editor of a non-partisan political newsletter that bears his name, is predicting a 'substantial' GOP wave in the Senate, with a net gain of at least seven seats. Recent polls by ABC News/ Washington Post, CNN and Gallup all show Obama with an approval rating of 42% or 43% - and that's a drag on Democrats.
'President Barack Obama's numbers could rally, of course, and that would change my expectations in the blink of an eye,' Rothenberg wrote in his Roll Call column. 'But as long as his approval sits in the 40-percent range ... the signs are ominous for Democrats.'
Our look at key races tonight and why they'll matter Nov. 4:
SENATE RACES: After a high-profile move to New Hampshire in December, Republican Scott Brown is expected to easily win the GOP nomination for Senate. He became a national sensation in 2010 when he defeated Democrat Martha Coakley in Massachusetts but lost his bid for a full Senate term in 2012 to Elizabeth Warren.
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H.(Photo: Jim Cole, AP)
Brown will face Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, a popular former New Hampshire governor, in the general election. Recent polls show the Shaheen vs. Brown race tightening, but University of New Hampshire political scientist Dante Scala says Shaheen is not in the same kind of danger that GOP incumbent John Sununu was at this time in 2008 as George W. Bush's unpopular presidency was coming to an end.
'The race is close, but she's still ahead,' Scala said. 'In a Democratic year that looks to be quite challenging, she's doing as well as can be expected.'
GOVERNOR RACES: Cuomo is expected to have little trouble winning renomination, despite the challenge on his left from law professor Zephyr Teachout. Four Republicans are vying in New Hampshire to take on incumbent Gov. Maggie Hassan, a Democrat.
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and his partner, Sandra Lee, cast their primary ballots.(Photo: Craig Ruttle, AP)
The governor races to watch are in Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Coakley, the Massachusetts attorney general, is trying to get into a general election battle with Republican Charlie Baker, who lost his 2010 race against Gov. Deval Patrick. (Patrick is retiring.)
There are wide-open Democratic and Republican primaries for governor in Rhode Island, with the Democratic race between Gina Raimondo, Angel Taveras and Clay Pell the most interesting. Pell, a political novice, worked in the Obama administration but is perhaps best known as the husband of figure skater Michelle Kwan and grandson of the late senator Claiborne Pell.
HOUSE RACES: Most political prognosticators predict Republicans will hold on to their 17-seat voting edge in the House and, perhaps, give Speaker John Boehner more GOP troops. Both of New Hampshire's House races will be fierce battlegrounds in November, and primary voters tonight will determine GOP challengers to Democratic Reps. Ann Kuster and Carol Shea-Porter. In Massachusetts, nine-term Rep. John Tierney is facing four Democratic challengers. Tierney barely survived the 2012 general election against Republican Richard Tisei, who is on the ballot again seeking a rematch.
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Posted by Unknown on Tuesday, September 9, 2014 - Rating: 4.5
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