WASHINGTON - With Friday's disappointing jobs report for August, Democrats can pretty much give up any remaining hopes that voters will shake their gloom about the economy before this fall's midterm elections.
After six consecutive months of monthly job gains exceeding 200,000, the Obama administration and Democratic candidates across the nation had harbored some optimism that the political climate might become less negative for their party if job growth on that scale continued. It did not, despite analysts' predictions of up to 250,000 new hires. The latest report, that employers hired 142,000 workers in August, is likely to leave voters' assessments about economic prospects unchanged.
Several economists emphasized that it was important not to draw broad conclusions from a single monthly report, particularly given the other, more positive recent economic data. But the tepid jobs report was especially worrisome for Democrats, given that Americans are consistently telling pollsters that the economy is their No. 1 concern going into elections that will determine which party controls the Senate and House for President Obama's final two years in office.
'The most important issue driving this election cycle is the economy,' wrote the Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, along with two colleagues, in an analysis this week of a bipartisan poll that she conducted with Ed Goeas of the Tarrance Group, a Republican firm.
Before the jobs report, which followed weeks of more positive reports on construction, manufacturing, exports and business orders, Ms. Lake and other Democratic consultants had been urging Mr. Obama and Democrats to step up their campaigning for the party's job-creation agenda. 'The president and the vice president should hit the road with the Democratic alternative on the economy, and Bill Clinton as well,' Ms. Lake said in an interview.
But she and other Democrats acknowledged that the president, who was ending a European summit on Friday, had been distracted by a near-continual series of international crises from the emphasis on jobs and the economy that he and his advisers had mapped out.
Republicans are putting greater emphasis on the economy as well, having been warned by their pollsters and consultants that the party's chances for a good political year were diminished by its general unpopularity, the lack of legislative achievements in the Republican-controlled House and Republicans' seeming focus on investigating and suing Mr. Obama.
With the post-Labor Day sprint to elections, both parties are promising action to invigorate the economy. Republicans are calling for more business tax cuts, while Democrats are emphasizing investments in infrastructure improvements, a higher minimum wage and pay equity for women, as well as targeted tax cuts for small businesses.
Typically, political consultants say that voters' attitudes about the economy are set by summer in an election year. This year, however, some Democrats had suggested that a continuing trend of positive job growth could sway more voters right up to the election, with the help of social media. While employment growth has continued for 54 straight months, totaling some 10 million new jobs, the emphasis in Friday's news about hiring in August was a disappointment to markets, which had expected better.
The August hiring occurred against a backdrop of increasing global tension, with Europe again tipping toward recession. That suggests that the United States economy is facing the kind of headwinds that have repeatedly hindered its full recovery in recent years - and dragged down Mr. Obama's popularity.
The fitful economic progress has stoked Americans' gloom, as has the fact that growth in the economy, jobs and stock markets has not been accompanied by meaningful gains in workers' wages. That in turn has deterred the White House and congressional Democrats from taking credit for ending the recession Mr. Obama inherited, lest they seem out of touch with workers' worries.
'There are no victory laps,' Ms. Lake said.
The fine line that the White House walks - between drawing attention to good economic news and recognizing weaknesses that linger - was evident this week. On Wednesday, amid anticipation in the private sector that Friday would bring another good employment report, Mr. Obama's three top economic advisers invited reporters in for an overview of the economic progress to date.
Reacting on Friday to the labor report, Jason Furman, the chairman of the president's Council of Economic Advisers, again emphasized the continued job growth, calling the figure 'a marker of the progress that has been made.' But, he immediately added, it was also 'a reminder that more must still be done to create jobs, especially for the long-term unemployed, and grow the middle class.'
Posted by Unknown on Friday, September 5, 2014 - Rating: 4.5
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