FORT LAUDERDALE | After decades of battering Florida, hurricanes may be starting to veer away from the state, experts say.
Of the 61 hurricanes that have formed in the past nine years, 37 have moved north in the Atlantic toward such places as Canada, the Northeast and Iceland, while others have slid south of Florida.
The result: Florida, historically a prime tropical target, hasn't been hit since Wilma in 2005. Further, North Carolina now has the shortest interval time, four years, between hits, compared with Florida's five.
'A number of studies have shown that there has been an observable shift northward in the tracks of tropical storms and hurricanes, including the points where they form, over the past 25 years,' said Bryan Norcross, a hurricane specialist for the Weather Channel.
When storms form farther to the north, they are 'less likely to hit Florida,' he said. 'In the Atlantic they tend to turn before they get to the state, and in the Gulf they are more likely to affect points west.'
During the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season, which ends today, all six hurricanes that formed aimed north, including Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, and Fay - and the two major hurricanes, Edouard and Gonzalo. Only Arthur drew close to the U.S. coastline, brushing North Carolina in July.
Norcross said the shift might the result of 'an aberration' in normal tropical cycles or it might stem from climate change.
'There is no doubt that a warmer ocean, less ice in the Arctic .and other measurable trends are affecting the general atmospheric circulation,' he said.
Still, Norcross said, it's impossible to know whether the northern trend will continue. 'I haven't seen any convincing evidence that this is the way things will stay,' he said.
Phil Klotzbach, the Colorado State University climatologist who develops seasonal predictions, said distinct atmospheric patterns have prompted the northern shift since 2006, mainly a trough of low pressure along the U.S. East Coast.
The result: 25 major hurricanes with sustained winds higher than 110 mph have formed in the Atlantic basin and bypassed the United States in the past nine years. According to long-term averages, 'we should have had roughly seven to nine major hurricane landfalls during this time period,' Klotzbach said.
But those patterns 'could change at any time,' he said.
Since 1900, Florida has been struck by 65 hurricanes, including 29 major ones, by far the most storm-battered state in the nation. Put another way, historically, 40 percent of all U.S. hurricanes hit the Sunshine State.
Before this nine-year stretch of no hits, the longest Florida had gone without a strike since tropical records started in 1851 was five years, from 1980 to 1984.
Meanwhile, since 2006, Canada was struck by four hurricanes and brushed by five others. It also was hit by two tropical storms. The U.S. Northeast was struck by four tropical systems, including Irene and Sandy, which weren't hurricanes when they hit land but caused hurricane-like damage.
Despite the streak of relatively calm years, Florida remains highly vulnerable because of its 1,200 miles of shoreline. And South Florida is particularly at risk because it extends into the subtropical region where storms roam, experts say.
'The bottom line, based on what we know today, is that to some or a significant degree, Florida has been lucky - and one day soon that luck will run out,' Norcross said.
Hurricane Season Ends
<p>FORT LAUDERDALE | After decades of battering Florida, hurricanes may be starting to veer away from the state, experts say.</p><p>Of the 61 hurricanes that have formed in the past nine years, 37 have moved north in the Atlantic toward such places as Canada, the Northeast and Iceland, while others have slid south of Florida.</p><p>The result: Florida, historically a prime tropical target, hasn't been hit since Wilma in 2005. Further, North Carolina now has the shortest interval time, four years, between hits, compared with Florida's five.</p><p>'A number of studies have shown that there has been an observable shift northward in the tracks of tropical storms and hurricanes, including the points where they form, over the past 25 years,' said Bryan Norcross, a hurricane specialist for the Weather Channel.</p><p>When storms form farther to the north, they are 'less likely to hit Florida,' he said. 'In the Atlantic they tend to turn before they get to the state, and in the Gulf they are more likely to affect points west.'</p><p>During the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season, which ends today, all six hurricanes that formed aimed north, including Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, and Fay - and the two major hurricanes, Edouard and Gonzalo. Only Arthur drew close to the U.S. coastline, brushing North Carolina in July.</p><p>Norcross said the shift might the result of 'an aberration' in normal tropical cycles or it might stem from climate change.</p><p>'There is no doubt that a warmer ocean, less ice in the Arctic .and other measurable trends are affecting the general atmospheric circulation,' he said.</p><p>Still, Norcross said, it's impossible to know whether the northern trend will continue. 'I haven't seen any convincing evidence that this is the way things will stay,' he said.</p><p>Phil Klotzbach, the Colorado State University climatologist who develops seasonal predictions, said distinct atmospheric patterns have prompted the northern shift since 2006, mainly a trough of low pressure along the U.S. East Coast.</p><p>The result: 25 major hurricanes with sustained winds higher than 110 mph have formed in the Atlantic basin and bypassed the United States in the past nine years. According to long-term averages, 'we should have had roughly seven to nine major hurricane landfalls during this time period,' Klotzbach said.</p><p>But those patterns 'could change at any time,' he said.</p><p>Since 1900, Florida has been struck by 65 hurricanes, including 29 major ones, by far the most storm-battered state in the nation. Put another way, historically, 40 percent of all U.S. hurricanes hit the Sunshine State.</p><p>Before this nine-year stretch of no hits, the longest Florida had gone without a strike since tropical records started in 1851 was five years, from 1980 to 1984.</p><p>Meanwhile, since 2006, Canada was struck by four hurricanes and brushed by five others. It also was hit by two tropical storms. The U.S. Northeast was struck by four tropical systems, including Irene and Sandy, which weren't hurricanes when they hit land but caused hurricane-like damage.</p><p>Despite the streak of relatively calm years, Florida remains highly vulnerable because of its 1,200 miles of shoreline. And South Florida is particularly at risk because it extends into the subtropical region where storms roam, experts say.</p><p>'The bottom line, based on what we know today, is that to some or a significant degree, Florida has been lucky - and one day soon that luck will run out,' Norcross said.</p>
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Posted by Unknown on Sunday, November 30, 2014 - Rating: 4.5
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