There's no Goliath in this year's World Series, just two wild-card teams who keep beating the odds and walking off with playoff wins. So far, the Royals have won all 8 of their post-season games, while the Giants have dropped just two.
Starting Tuesday night, someone is going to start losing. Who? Think of it as a clash of hot streaks. The Royals have been scoring more runs than they did all season, while the Giants pitchers are giving up fewer. One of these streaks has got to give, and it may make the difference in the series.
Is the Royals' offense really that hot?
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Yes. The Royals had a hard time scoring runs this season. With just 4.02 runs per game, they were actually below the league average. Yet, since the postseason began, they've been scoring 5.25 runs per game, which is not just a huge improvement for them. It's far higher than even the league-leading LA Angels (who averaged 4.77 runs per game).
And for all the talk about how the Royals play small-ball and manufacture runs, the big difference this postseason is that they're hitting for power. Racking up 8 home runs in 8 playoff games puts them way ahead of their season average of just .58 home runs per game.
Now, it's true that their pitchers haven't been playing badly either. Their postseason ERA has improved, and they've cut down on the number of hits and walks they give up (WHIP measures how many hits and walks they cede per inning.)
But pitching stats should improve during the playoffs, because only the best pitchers pitch. Not only do teams trim their rotations (cutting out Danny Duffy, for instance), but they fret less about rest, and use their bullpens more aggressively.
What about the Giants?
Offensively, the Giants are pretty much the same team they've been all year, averaging 4.1 runs per game just as they did in the regular season. If anything, they're underperforming. Batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging are all down.
On the mound, though, they've been remarkably sharp. The Giants' team ERA is nearly 40 percent lower than it was during the season, and they've allowed almost 20 percent fewer baserunners. Obviously, a lot of that hangs on the arms of Madison Bumgarner and Jeremy Affeldt.
So who's going to win?
A best-of-seven series is short, and there's every reason to expect that chance will play a mighty role - whether it's those few pitches that don't break or the hits that hug the foul pole.
But it's also true that one of these streaks will end. Either the Royals stop scoring runs, or the Giants start giving 'em up.
Here's one reason to think the Royals have the tougher task. Not only have they been putting up lots of runs, but they've been doing so against the best pitchers their opponents have. That's doubly unlikely. If you find yourself thinking 'wow, the Royals really are playing exceptionally well,' remember that's a bad sign. They're playing so far above their regular season level that it's hard to imagine they can continue.
Evan Horowitz digs through data to find information that illuminates the policy issues facing Massachusetts and the U.S. He can be reached at evan.horowitz@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @GlobeHorowitz
Posted by Unknown on Monday, October 20, 2014 - Rating: 4.5
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