WASHINGTON - The Republican Party will watch nervously on Tuesday when the first of a series of key primaries to select Senate nominees is held in North Carolina, one of the states where the races are likely to determine which party controls Congress.
North Carolina has made a decisive shift to the right in recent years, with Republicans in control of both the governor's office and both houses of the legislature for the first time in more than a century. Barack Obama won the state narrowly in 2008, and Mitt Romney carried it in 2012.
As a result of the shift, Republicans see a chance to unseat Senator Kay Hagan, a Democrat who rode Mr. Obama's coattails in 2008, and in the process pick up one of the six additional seats that the Republicans need to take control of the Senate.
Party officials say the best hope of defeating Ms. Hagan is Thom Tillis, the speaker of the State House of Representatives. He has the support of Speaker John A. Boehner; the Senate minority leader, Mitch McConnell; the U.S. Chamber of Commerce; and outside groups like American Crossroads. On Monday he was endorsed by Mr. Romney.
Recent polls suggest that Mr. Tillis has a comfortable lead over his three opponents, but it is not clear whether he can win the 40 percent he needs to prevent a runoff in July. (Most of the recent polls did not meet the standards of The New York Times because they used automated telephone calls, which by law cannot be made to cellphones.)
The possibility of a runoff worries the Republican leadership. For one thing, it would force Mr. Tillis and outside groups like Crossroads to spend more money on the nominating process, siphoning resources from the general campaign. And as long as the nomination is unsettled, many national groups are likely to withhold their endorsements and money.
But more than that, runoffs can be messy and unpredictable, sometimes harming the eventual nominee.
'If Tillis is tied up in a runoff till mid-July, it knocks a few points off his chances of beating Hagan in November,' said Charlie Cook, the editor of The Cook Political Report, which tracks congressional races.
Mr. Cook added, 'It's more likely than not that Tillis gets to 40' percent in Tuesday's primary. A runoff, if it is necessary, would be held on July 15.
Mr. Tillis's challengers include Greg Brannon, an obstetrician and Tea Party favorite of Senators Rand Paul of Kentucky and Mike Lee of Utah, and Mark Harris, a Baptist pastor with endorsements from Christian conservatives like Mike Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas. In recent polls, Mr. Brannon has led Mr. Harris by several percentage points.
Mr. Brannon, in particular, could give party leaders heartburn if he forces a runoff. In February, a court ruled that he misled two investors in a failed start-up company and ordered him to pay back more than $450,000. He is appealing the verdict. He has also said that income taxes are used for 'central planning' by the federal government, in the spirit of Soviet-style communism or Nazi Germany, and that by virtue of collecting property taxes, local governments effectively own all private property.
Although Mr. Tillis has the support of mainstream Republicans and presents himself as a relative moderate, his record in the state legislature is well right of center. Under his leadership, the legislature passed broad restrictions on voting and passed an amendment banning same-sex marriage. He also received criticism for paying two staff members more than $19,000 in severance pay after they resigned over a sex scandal involving lobbyists.
The stakes are high enough in North Carolina that outside groups aligned with both parties, many of which stayed out of congressional primaries over the last two cycles, have poured millions of dollars into the state.
Ms. Hagan's campaign expressed confidence that she would be able to make a strong case against any of the possible Republican nominees.
'Regardless of who Kay will face in November, her opponent's fringe, special interest agenda will be a strong contrast with Kay's track record of common sense results for North Carolina's middle class families,' a spokeswoman, Sadie Weiner, said by email. 'Whether it's asserting that states have the authority to ban birth control or opposing an increase in the minimum wage, all of her opponents are out of sync with North Carolina's values.'
Campaign representatives for Mr. Tillis, Mr. Brannon and Mr. Harris did not respond to requests for comment.
Although Ms. Hagan has kept a low profile in the Senate and does not have a lengthy record to scrutinize, the Republican candidates have said that they would paint her as a misguided supporter of Democratic causes, most notably Mr. Obama's health care law, which she voted for.
She has already seen that line of attack in a multimillion-dollar ad campaign financed by Americans for Prosperity, the group affiliated with the conservative billionaires David H. and Charles G. Koch.
Mr. Tillis has been aided by an ad campaign sponsored by American Crossroads, the group led by Karl Rove that supports establishment candidates. Outside Democratic groups, for their part, have poured millions of dollars into the race against Mr. Tillis.
North Carolina's primary will be followed next Tuesday by an open race in West Virginia, where Senator Jay Rockefeller, a Democrat, is retiring and where Republicans see a strong chance to pick up a seat.
On May 20, Republicans in Arkansas will choose their nominee to challenge the Democratic incumbent, Senator Mark Pryor, who is considered vulnerable.
Primaries will also be held that day in Georgia, where Senator Saxby Chambliss, a Republican, is retiring, and in Kentucky, where Mr. McConnell, the would-be Senate majority leader, is considered a cinch for the nomination but is expected to have a tough race in the general election against Alison Lundergan Grimes, the Democratic secretary of state.
The June primary calendar is packed with important races, in Montana, Iowa, Mississippi, South Dakota and Colorado.
Posted by Unknown on Tuesday, May 6, 2014 - Rating: 4.5
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