WASHINGTON - While President Obama insisted again on Tuesday that the West would not recognize the annexation of Crimea, officials in the United States and Europe have privately concluded that Crimea is lost and that the real challenge is stopping Russia from further destabilizing Ukraine.
After meeting with allies in Europe and suspending Russia from the Group of 8, Mr. Obama indicated no plans for additional sanctions unless Russia's president, Vladimir V. Putin, makes another provocative move. Every reference to further action against Russia during a 40-minute news conference in The Hague came with conditional phrases like 'if the situation gets worse,' while Mr. Obama acknowledged that 'the facts on the ground' are that Crimea is under Russian control.
'It would be dishonest to suggest that there's a simple solution to resolving what has already taken place in Crimea,' Mr. Obama said, 'although you know, history has a funny way of moving in twists and turns and not just in a straight line.'
For the United States and its European allies, the question is whether Mr. Putin will simply pocket his victory in Crimea and leave it at that. Mr. Putin has been unmoved by the cancellation of trade talks, suspension of military cooperation, and travel bans and asset freezes imposed on a handful of his aides and allies. But he has not made clear whether he feels emboldened enough to press for further territorial or political gains in Ukraine in the face of threats of more sweeping sanctions against Russian arms, energy and banking sectors.
While anything seems possible, the operating assumption among some American and European officials is that Mr. Putin will not overtly invade eastern Ukraine but instead opt for a murky middle plan, using local agitators and perhaps undercover special forces to stir even more unrest in largely Russian-speaking areas of the country.
Obama administration officials are meeting every day to shape what they call midrange sanctions to respond to such a situation - something with broader impact than the financial penalties imposed so far on individuals, although short of the sectorwide sanctions that could inflict more damage but that might draw more resistance in Europe.
An example might be the ban imposed by the United States on doing business with Bank Rossiya, the only institution so targeted to date. Washington and Brussels could go after more specific institutions with ties to Mr. Putin's ruling circle without cutting entire industries off from international financing and trade.
That does not mean that the administration will not impose additional sanctions absent further Russian provocation, officials insisted. But they indicated that they would not move to the more painful stage of sector-wide measures without escalation by Moscow.
Current and former officials acknowledged that the recent sanctions would not force Mr. Putin to give up Crimea. 'Will sanctions get Russia to leave Crimea, the current sanctions?' Michael A. McFaul, Mr. Obama's j ust-departed ambassador to Moscow, said on a conference call organized by the journal Foreign Affairs. 'The obvious answer is no. It's designed to make people pay a price. It's not designed to change their behavior.'
Ivo H. Daalder, a former ambassador to NATO under Mr. Obama and now president of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, said the fate of eastern Ukraine should be the priority for the administration now, not Crimea. 'If the basic question is whether we focus on Crimea or focus on the next thing, the right thing to do is to focus on the next thing,' he said in an interview.
Ukraine Crisis in MapsThe administration cannot admit that publicly, however, because it would be taken as a sign of capitulation. Congressional Democrats and Republicans alike continued to argue that the annexation had to be rolled back. Advocating legislation sanctioning Russia and aiding Ukraine, Senator Robert Menendez of New Jersey, the Democratic chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, said passage 'would send a clear and unambiguous message to the world that the annexation of Crimea will not stand.'
In The Hague, administration officials repeatedly sought to avoid saying directly that the United States and its allies had accepted the annexation as a fait accompli. A senior administration official who briefed reporters on Monday under an agreement that he not be identified said Mr. Putin could incite more serious sanctions by trying to stir trouble inside Ukraine.
'The type of status quo that we're currently in has already brought significant sanctions and we reserve the right to move ahead with sanctions,' the official said. 'It depends on how that status quo evolves, to be completely candid with you. Again, to what extent is Russia seeking de-escalation? To what extent are they engaged in acts that attempt to destabilize the Ukrainian government?'
At his news conference, Mr. Obama dismissed Mr. Putin's claims that Russian speakers were in danger in Crimea or elsewhere in Ukraine. 'There has been no evidence that Russian speakers have been in any way threatened,' he said. 'If anything, what we've seen are provocateurs who have created, you know, scuffles inside of Ukraine.'
The president likewise rejected Mr. Putin's comparison of the Crimea annexation to Kosovo's break from Serbia with NATO help in 1999 and declaration of independence in 2008. In the Kosovo case, Mr. Obama said, 'you had thousands of people who were being slaughtered by their government,' so that, he added, is 'a comparison that makes absolutely no sense.'
And he used the occasion to calm nervous NATO allies like Poland and the Baltic States, saying the alliance has contingency plans for a Russian action. 'Every one of our NATO allies has assurances that we will act in their defense against any threats,' he said. 'That's what NATO is all about.'
But the challenge is anticipating what Russia will do next. Some American officials suspect Mr. Putin may be bluffing by massing forces on Ukraine's borders so that if he stops short of a full-fledged invasion, the West will take solace while effectively accepting Crimea's annexation.
Leon Aron, director of Russian studies at the American Enterprise Institute and author of 'Roads to the Temple' about the fall of the Soviet Union, said Mr. Putin was motivated as much by domestic politics as by foreign policy. With polls showing a surge of support for his defiance of the United States and Europe, external pressure may not stop Mr. Putin from expanding his intervention in Ukraine.
'At this point, it's very hard to say because the real issue is not what things actually are but what the leader's perception is,' Mr. Aron said. 'The benefits are obvious domestically, but the downsides are huge. That will escalate it to a whole different level.'
Posted by Unknown on Wednesday, March 26, 2014 - Rating: 4.5
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